India’s economy is projected to grow between 6.8 and 7.2 per cent in 2025–26, according to the Economic Survey 2025–26, despite global uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.
The pre-Budget document was tabled in Parliament on January 29 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. For Guwahati, the outlook offers cautious optimism, particularly for small businesses, services, and employment linked to domestic demand.
The Economic Survey 2025–26 projects India’s GDP growth at 6.8–7.2% despite global uncertainty, citing strong macroeconomic fundamentals. For Guwahati, the outlook signals stability for local businesses, services, and employment, even as currency volatility and global headwinds continue to pose challenges.
What the Growth Forecast Means
The Survey notes that while the projected growth is slightly lower than the estimated 7.4% expansion in the current fiscal, India’s medium-term growth potential is nearing 7%, driven by years of structural and policy reforms.
Economists say such growth levels, if sustained, help support urban consumption, MSMEs, and service-sector jobs—key pillars of Guwahati’s economy.
Relevance for Guwahati and Assam
Guwahati functions as Assam’s commercial and financial hub, anchoring retail trade, logistics, education, healthcare, and a growing digital services ecosystem.
A stable national growth outlook could translate into:
- Steady demand for local businesses and traders
- Continued hiring in services and education
- Better conditions for Assam-based startups and MSMEs
- Improved state revenues supporting urban infrastructure
Local business owners say predictable growth is crucial after years of disruption from inflation and global volatility.
What the Survey Says on the Rupee
Addressing concerns over the rupee’s recent depreciation, the Survey said the currency is “punching below its weight”, and its current valuation does not reflect India’s economic fundamentals.
Prepared by a team led by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, the Survey attributes rupee weakness largely to tight global financial conditions and reduced foreign capital inflows, rather than domestic instability.
Impact of a Weak Rupee on the Local Economy
For cities like Guwahati, a weaker rupee can have mixed effects:
- Higher costs for imported goods and equipment
- Potential relief for export-linked sectors and services
- Increased caution among foreign investors
The Survey notes that while an undervalued rupee can cushion external shocks, long-term growth needs currency stability.
Medium-Term Outlook and Viksit Bharat Goal
The Survey stresses that a strong and stable rupee will be essential to achieving the broader goal of Viksit Bharat and enhancing India’s global influence.
For Guwahati, this aligns with aspirations to grow as a regional economic centre for the Northeast, attracting investment while expanding local employment opportunities.
What Happens Next
The growth projections will inform the Union Budget, which businesses and policymakers in Assam are watching closely for signals on infrastructure spending, MSME support, and job creation.
Any fiscal push linked to domestic demand could directly influence Guwahati’s urban economy in the coming year.
Frequently Asked Questions
The Survey projects India’s GDP growth at 6.8–7.2% for the 2025–26 fiscal year.
As Assam’s economic hub, Guwahati’s businesses, jobs, and services are closely tied to national growth trends and fiscal policy direction.
