The Economic Survey 2025–26, tabled in Parliament on January 29, has warned that a worst-case global crisis triggered by rapid artificial intelligence (AI) expansion could cause economic damage worse than the 2008 financial crash, posing risks to India’s IT and white-collar jobs.
The warning has particular relevance for Guwahati, where the IT and services sector, though smaller than metros, has been steadily expanding through startups, IT services firms, and remote-work professionals linked to national and global tech markets.
The Economic Survey 2025–26 warns that a worst-case global AI-driven crisis could cause economic damage worse than the 2008 crash, threatening India’s IT and white-collar jobs. Though considered unlikely, such a shock could affect cities like Guwahati, where IT services, startups, and remote tech employment are growing.
What the Economic Survey Says
The survey, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, describes the scenario as unlikely but dangerous, assigning it a 10–20% probability.
It notes that a combination of rapid AI adoption, geopolitical tensions, and financial stress could trigger a global economic shock. The concern is not AI alone, but the speed and scale at which AI-driven systems are being deployed across industries.
Why IT and White-Collar Jobs Are at Risk
According to the survey, one of the most vulnerable areas is the AI-driven infrastructure sector, where companies rely on:
- Heavy long-term capital investment
- A small number of large global clients
- Aggressive growth timelines
If this sector faces a sudden correction due to trade disruptions or geopolitical tensions, global funding could dry up, slowing investments and pushing economies into crisis mode.
Implications for Guwahati’s Workforce
Guwahati has seen a rise in IT services firms, digital agencies, ed-tech companies, and remote tech professionals over the past decade. Many young professionals in the city now work for companies based in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, or overseas.
Economists note that if global IT spending slows, secondary tech hubs like Guwahati could feel the impact through hiring freezes, delayed projects, or reduced freelance and remote opportunities.
Jobless Growth a Key Warning Sign
The survey highlights that since late 2022, when generative AI tools became widely used, growth in global IT-linked sectors has not translated into proportional job creation.
This trend raises concerns that productivity gains from AI may increasingly come without corresponding employment growth, especially in routine white-collar roles.
Why This Matters for Assam
For Assam, and Guwahati in particular, the IT and services sector has been seen as a pathway for educated youth to access national and global job markets without migrating permanently to metro cities.
Any prolonged slowdown in IT hiring could impact career prospects for graduates from Guwahati’s colleges and technical institutions, many of whom are entering software, analytics, and digital services roles.
What Happens Next
The Economic Survey does not predict an imminent crisis, but urges policymakers and businesses to prepare for AI-related disruptions. The findings are expected to influence future discussions on skill development, job transitions, and safeguards for white-collar employment.
Frequently Asked Questions
No. The survey says such a scenario is unlikely but possible, assigning it a 10–20% chance, and warns of the risks if it occurs.
If global IT spending slows, Guwahati’s tech workforce, especially those in services, startups, and remote roles, could face slower hiring and fewer new opportunities.
